Truco - Baixada

Every hand of truco starts the same way: the leader looks at three cards and puts one on the table. This chapter is that decision, read straight off the solved roots — which card opens, when the strongest card waits, and what the wrong choice costs in match-win chance.

§ 1

The first decision

The leader's options at the root are wider than they look: play any of the three cards face up — or, when the raise ladder is live, call truco before playing anything. The solve almost never takes that last road: at 10×10 the immediate truco carries just 0.3% of its opening mix. Leverage is worth more after a round has been seen.

What the solve weighs in choosing the card is everything the theory chapters built: which round the hand most wants to win, what the lead reveals about the two cards behind it, and — at live-ladder scores — which continuations keep the truco threat pointed the right way.

§ 2

The charts

The grids are Part I's own: each block fixes the lowest card, the axes place the other two, and a cell's colours are the solve's actual mix over first actions — dark blue leads the strongest card, sky the middle, vermillion the lowest, purple calls truco first. Hover or tap a cell and the readout prices every available opening for that exact hand.

Leads the strongest card on 57.9% of deals · the middle card 22.5% · the lowest 19.2% · calls truco first 0.3%.

L = 4

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A	K	J	Q	7	6	4
5♣	90	50	99	100	100	100	100	99	99	100	86	85
5♥		92	93	97	97	94	99	96	98	99	92	100
5♠			100	63	99	99	81	95	95	51	96	100
5♦				99	59	100	61	93	99	100	100	100
3				100	100	99	100	100	100	100	100	100
2					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
A						100	100	99	100	100	100	100
K							100	100	99	99	100	100
J								100	59	77	76	76
Q									100	47	55	69
7										70	48	60
6											61	51
4												100

L = 6

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A	K	J	Q	7	6
5♣	83	66	80	100	99	62	67	56	46	75	98
5♥		98	99	92	96	100	100	99	61	73	87
5♠			100	58	100	100	100	83	99	99	100
5♦				70	90	100	100	79	50	92	100
3				100	100	48	66	100	100	100	100
2					100	100	100	100	100	100	100
A						100	100	84	100	100	100
K							100	97	65	81	99
J								96	80	87	69
Q									90	40	59
7										61	56
6											100

L = 7

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A	K	J	Q	7
5♣	76	99	76	92	89	100	100	100	100	100
5♥		98	100	99	56	74	97	100	99	100
5♠			100	89	74	100	100	100	100	100
5♦				96	100	100	100	100	100	85
3				100	88	57	64	76	64	100
2					100	100	98	99	100	100
A						100	100	99	55	100
K							100	90	53	83
J								100	56	62
Q									55	64
7										100

L = Q

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A	K	J	Q
5♣	82	100	100	79	99	100	100	100	100
5♥		59	77	84	96	54	93	100	100
5♠			98	100	74	61	98	100	100
5♦				99	100	64	61	100	100
3				100	77	84	92	100	87
2					100	96	92	66	100
A						100	100	99	62
K							100	82	99
J								91	100
Q									100

L = J

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A	K	J
5♣	98	100	100	88	96	100	100	100
5♥		55	89	99	62	100	100	100
5♠			95	100	100	66	100	100
5♦				76	100	100	98	100
3				100	100	68	56	66
2					100	61	71	94
A						100	61	89
K							100	100
J								100

L = K

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A	K
5♣	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
5♥		99	100	100	100	100	100
5♠			59	83	77	100	100
5♦				96	99	72	100
3				100	76	99	100
2					100	94	100
A						100	98
K							100

L = A

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2	A
5♣	100	100	100	100	100	100
5♥		100	100	100	100	100
5♠			97	100	100	100
5♦				93	78	100
3				100	78	100
2					100	76
A						100

L = 2

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3	2
5♣	100	100	100	100	100
5♥		100	100	100	100
5♠			38	98	100
5♦				99	100
3				100	98
2					100

L = 3

H \ M	5♥	5♠	5♦	3
5♣	100	100	100	100
5♥		68	84	100
5♠			61	56
5♦				97
3				100

L = 5♦

H \ M	5♥	5♠
5♣	100	100
5♥		97

L = 5♠

H \ M	5♥
5♣	100

Hover or tap a cell — the readout prices every opening for that hand.

Walk this spot in the lab: 10x10 v4 →

Plate XII The leader's first decision at the solved roots, rendered from the same certified exports as the lab.

§ 3

The patterns

At 10×10 the headline is simple: lead strength. The strongest card opens on 58% of deals, the middle on 22%, the lowest on 19%. But the rule has a load-bearing exception — the manilha stays home. Hands holding at least one manilha are 28% of deals, and they open with the manilha only 12% of the time; when the strongest card is a manilha, the solve banks it and leads something else at 83%. “Lead strength” really means: lead your best plain card, keep the certain round in your pocket.

The locked stakes flip the policy. At 11×11, with the hand automatically worth three and no ladder left to threaten, the same 403 hands lead the lowest card 45% and the middle 39% — the strongest card opens just 17% of deals. With nothing to leverage, the opening becomes a probe: spend the cheap card, learn the round, and keep the winners for the rounds that decide the match.

Two more measured facts worth keeping. The lead decision is mostly crisp — 233 of the 403 charted hands at 10×10, and over 330 at 11×11, commit to one opening outright; the rest genuinely mix. And at 11×11 it barely matters who deals: the two roles' lead policies agree to within a tenth of a percentage point.

§ 4

What a wrong lead costs

Averaged over deals, picking the worst available first card costs about 5 pp of match-win chance at 10×10 — and about 11 pp at 11×11, where there is no later ladder to claw a bad opening back.

The expensive traps cluster where the hand is strongest: holding the club manilha with two middling cards, the worst opening burns close to 20 pp at 10×10, and the same family reaches 44 pp at 11×11. Strong hands don't make the opening safe — they raise the stakes of getting it wrong. Walk any of these cells in the plate above and the readout shows exactly which openings bleed.